Everyone in mining knows the importance of NPV, IRR, and most critically—cashflow. - Almost to a painful degree. But there’s something that’s been sitting in my head for a while, and once I point it out, I think it will seem obvious. A recent post that linked grades to permitting delays got me thinking again about the time bias embedded in how we model cashflows. We all know that NPV and IRR rely on discounting future cashflows—and for good reason. The further out a dollar is, the less valuable it is today. It’s a fundamental principle in mining project evaluation. But here’s the problem: this approach bends reality in ways we don’t always acknowledge. 🔹 Long-term distortion—Anything beyond 30-50 years is effectively erased in value because of discounting. Yet, for the majors, a 50-year mine life is a massive advantage. The model says it’s nearly worthless. Operators know otherwise. 🔹 Short-term distortion—The magic of cashflow modeling is that it rewards slight shifts in timing. Delay capital deployment a little, assume cashflows start rolling in faster, push sustaining capital back a few years—suddenly, the numbers look fantastic. But in reality, there are limits on how well we can control these things. Payment terms don’t always line up. Ramp-ups rarely go exactly as planned. And once a project is in motion, those early assumptions can make or break it. We saw a clear example of it with a few companies in 2024. Namely Ascot Resources and the Premier Mine. This was an experienced team, a solid project that was tripped up because of not meeting early cashflow need. Not because the mine wasn’t viable, but because cashflows it needed did not come in on time. That brings up the real question: 1) How do we ensure long-term optionality isn’t ignored just because it doesn’t show up in NPV? 2) How do we stay reasonable and conservative in short-term cashflow assumptions? 3) How do we account for delays—because they’re real and likely—so that a three or six-month slip doesn’t determine whether a mine should have been built in the first place? ▪️Because if a small delay can break a project, was the decision to build it ever sound? The focus shouldn’t just be on making numbers work in the short term—it should be on long-term stability beyond the initial payback.